A recent genetic study led by Chinese researchers is shedding new light on the ancestral origins of Okinawans, revealing links that trace back to China’s Shandong province—the birthplace of Confucius. While the findings contribute to the understanding of East Asia’s genetic history, they may also stir political tensions between Japan and China.

The study, published in Nature Communications on February 3, analyzed nuclear genomes from 85 individuals at 11 archaeological sites in Shandong, dating back 6,000 to 1,500 years. Researchers discovered that about 75% of the genetic makeup of Ryukyu Islanders, early relatives of present-day Okinawans, originated from Shandong’s Longshan period, approximately 4,600 to 4,000 years ago. Subsequent genetic mixing occurred during or after China’s Sui and Tang dynasties, 1,600 to 1,400 years ago.

Professor Fu Qiaomei from the Chinese Academy of Sciences, who spearheaded the research, highlighted its significance in addressing long-standing questions about the origins of modern East Asians. Chinese state media quickly picked up the findings, framing the study as a crucial breakthrough.

However, the study risks amplifying long-standing disputes in Okinawa, a Japanese prefecture with a complex history. Okinawa, home to 70% of the country’s US military bases despite covering less than 1% of Japan’s total land area, has long been a hotbed of activism. Protests over crime, accidents, and environmental damage linked to US military installations like Kadena Air Base have fueled calls for greater autonomy—or even independence.

On Japanese social media, the study has sparked discussions about Okinawa’s distinct cultural and political identity. Some users embraced the findings, claiming ancestral ties to China, while others expressed concern about the potential political implications.

Amid ongoing territorial disputes in the East China Sea and China’s opposition to the US military presence in Okinawa, the study’s findings may deepen existing tensions between Tokyo and Beijing. Although the research avoids explicit political commentary, its timing coincides with renewed demands from Okinawan leaders to reduce the American military footprint in the region.