In response to growing nuclear threats, the US Congress established the Strategic Posture Commission in 2022, marking only the second instance of such a body being created since 2008. This bipartisan group of 12 experts aims to guide the US on managing its nuclear arsenal in light of recent developments.

China’s Rapid Nuclear Expansion Raises Alarms

Since 2020, China has significantly increased its nuclear stockpile, causing concern in Washington. With intelligence reports indicating a rapid build-up of launchers and warheads, the US fears China is becoming a third major nuclear superpower.

A Dire Global Environment

In their October 2023 report, the Commission described the current global nuclear environment as more perilous than during the Cold War. They recommended the US consider expanding its nuclear capabilities, including warheads, delivery systems, defenses, and launchers.

Shifting Focus to Nuclear Threats

Experts agree that the world is shifting back towards an era of nuclear build-up and brinkmanship. Scholars warn that the US needs to act decisively to prevent a new nuclear arms race, with some fearing an unnecessary escalation.

The Two-Peer Problem: US Faces Dual Nuclear Threats

The US is now confronted with the “Two-Peer Problem,” having to counter both Russia and China’s nuclear capabilities simultaneously. By 2035, China could possess as many warheads as the US and Russia, complicating nuclear negotiations and increasing the risk of an arms race.

Urgent Need for Strategic Decisions

With only 11 years to address these challenges, the Commission urges the US to make critical decisions now. Recommendations include deploying multiple warheads on intercontinental ballistic missiles, increasing stealth bomber production, and enhancing tactical nuclear capabilities.

Mixed Reactions from Experts

Not all experts agree on the need for a nuclear build-up. Some advocate for maintaining a survivable, safe, and reliable nuclear arsenal without increasing numbers. They emphasize the importance of continuing diplomatic efforts with Russia and China.

Public Awareness and Generational Divide

Despite the looming threats, public awareness and focus on nuclear issues remain low. Experts attribute this to a generational shift, with younger people more interested in modern issues like artificial intelligence than nuclear weapons.